The LoPucki-Doherty Bankruptcy Survival Calculator: Prediction

Select a Bankruptcy Research Database case from the list (Who’s on the list?), or enter any combination of these eleven variables and click on “Calculate.” Then the program will predict the likelihood that the debtor company will continue in business as a stand-alone company beyond the end of the bankruptcy case.

Select a case or enter data below

Optionally, select a judge to fill in that judge's current experience below

Example		Input Click here to obtain input data for BRD cases
no		Select yes if the debtor publicly indicated an intent to sell the businesses, no if not.
4.1		Enter the prime rate of interest one year prior to filing.
neither		Select whether the case is prepackaged, prenegotiated, or neither.
-.08		Enter the ratio of the debtors equity to assets before bankruptcy.
no		Select yes if the debtor’s primary business is manufacturing, no if not.
21		Enter the miles from the debtor’s headquarters city to the local bankruptcy court city.
yes		Select yes if a creditors’ committee was appointed within 24 days of file, no if not.
no		Select yes if the debtor’s EBIT* was greater than zero, no if not.
7		Enter the number of prior BRD cases in which the judge was the judge at confirmation.
845,653,000		Enter the debtor’s assets before bankruptcy, in current (inflation adjusted) dollars.
yes		Select yes if the court approves a DIP loan, no if it does not.
		Output
75 %		Lower bound of 95% confidence interval.
86 %		Probability the debtor company will survive bankruptcy.
96 %		Upper bound of 95% confidence interval.
		Actual outcome of case.

The variables for this model were selected based on regression model (1) in Table 4 of Lynn M. LoPucki & Joseph W. Doherty, Bankruptcy Survival (July 28, 2014). Data used in the calculations are updated monthly.
* Earnings Before Interest and Taxes

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